ISLAMABAD: The Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) hosted a high-level roundtable discussion today on \u201cIndia\u2019s Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities: Implications for Pakistan\u201d.<\/p>\n
The session brought together leading strategic experts, diplomats and military analysts to assess what participants described as a qualitative shift in South Asia\u2019s deterrence architecture after the operational deployment of India\u2019s sea-based nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n
In his welcome remarks, Ambassador Khalid Mehmood, Chairman of the Board of Governors of ISSI, underlined the seriousness of the changing regional security environment. He said the operationalisation of India\u2019s sea-based nuclear deterrent represented a qualitative and structural shift in regional security.<\/p>\n
Ambassador Mehmood added that these developments required a clear reassessment of deterrence postures and diplomatic frameworks to protect regional peace and stability.<\/p>\n
Earlier, Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director ACDC, opened the proceedings by setting out the scope of the discussion and welcoming the participants. He said the disruption to South Asian strategic stability called for a rigorous assessment of possible doctrinal and technological posture adjustments needed for Pakistan to maintain a credible deterrent.<\/p>\n
Setting the agenda, Ms Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow at ACDC, pointed to major structural turning points facing the region, including the movement from recessed deterrence to mated warheads. She raised key questions on how Pakistan could maintain robust Full Spectrum Deterrence without entering an expensive and open-ended naval arms race. She suggested that lasting security lay in negotiating strong maritime Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs).<\/p>\n
The roundtable included detailed presentations by a panel of strategic thinkers. Vice Admiral (retd) Dr Ahmed Saeed HI(M), former President of the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), spoke about the growing strategic imbalance in the Indian Ocean due to India\u2019s major investment in advanced conventional and nuclear submarines, including SSBNs.<\/p>\n
He warned that the rapid expansion of India\u2019s naval capabilities was creating a serious defence asymmetry, lowering the nuclear threshold and increasing the risk of inadvertent escalation between two neighbouring nuclear-armed states. To reduce maritime risks and prevent an unchecked arms race, Admiral Saeed called for strong bilateral CBMs and a renewed diplomatic effort to declare the Indian Ocean a non-nuclear domain. He said a maritime nuclear conflict offered no route to military victory and required mutual strategic restraint.<\/p>\n
Ambassador (retd) Zamir Akram, Advisor to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), said India\u2019s rapid vertical proliferation was pushing a dangerous shift away from its \u201cNo First Use\u201d policy towards a pre-emptive first-strike posture aimed at neutralising Pakistan\u2019s Full Spectrum Deterrence.<\/p>\n
Rejecting the view that these assets were only aimed at China, he referred to what he called the \u201cdeafening silence\u201d and double standards of the international community over India\u2019s expanding sea-based capabilities. He said the development posed a threat beyond South Asia and undermined strategic stability at both regional and global levels.<\/p>\n
Ambassador Akram urged Pakistan to highlight India\u2019s irresponsible nuclear behaviour internationally, establish strong crisis-management mechanisms instead of depending on weak bilateral arrangements, and strengthen its defensive posture by fully operationalising and deploying nuclear warheads across its land, air and sea-based triad to ensure a credible and survivable second-strike capability.<\/p>\n
Air Commodore (retd) Khalid Banuri, Senior Advisor JCCL, Air Headquarters, said India\u2019s move towards a permanently mated sea-based nuclear presence had brought a major structural change to South Asian deterrence. He said this had sharply compressed political-military decision-making windows and reduced traditional peacetime buffers to zero.<\/p>\n
He explained the rising risks of crisis instability, saying the opacity of the sea leg mixed conventional and nuclear signalling and significantly increased the danger of unintended escalation and inadvertent launch. He said India\u2019s \u201cNo First Use\u201d doctrine had become practically meaningless under the new posture, while Pakistan\u2019s credible deterrence was under serious pressure due to fiscal constraints and the destabilising integration of emerging technologies.<\/p>\n
To preserve strategic stability and avoid a damaging arms race, he suggested that Pakistan\u2019s best response should combine the pursuit of modern technologies, a survivable and strengthened second-strike capability, and proactive diplomatic initiatives.<\/p>\n
Dr Aqeel Akhtar discussed the security dilemma linked to sea-based nuclear deterrence. He said the growing deployment of nuclear submarines was creating new challenges for command and control, crisis communication and strategic stability. He stressed the need to strengthen secure communication systems, reduce risks of miscalculation and develop robust safeguards to prevent inadvertent escalation in an increasingly complex maritime security environment.<\/p>\n
The presentations were followed by an interactive open discussion in which members of the strategic community, academia and media exchanged views on policy options available to Pakistan for maintaining strategic equilibrium.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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