{"id":21266,"date":"2026-10-02T15:19:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/poorer-areas-hit-harder-as-flood-recovery-remains-uneven-in-pakistan-study\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T15:39:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:39:42","slug":"poorer-areas-hit-harder-as-flood-recovery-remains-uneven-in-pakistan-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/poorer-areas-hit-harder-as-flood-recovery-remains-uneven-in-pakistan-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Poorer Areas Hit Harder as Flood Recovery Remains Uneven in Pakistan: Study"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nadeem Tanoli<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

ISLAMABAD: Poorer communities in Pakistan suffered heavier losses and recovered more slowly and unevenly from the 2022 and 2025 floods, according to a new study which says repeated flooding disrupted recovery already under way in several areas.<\/p>\n

The study found that pre-existing gaps in wealth, infrastructure and access to resources shaped both the scale of flood damage and the pace of recovery. It said communities with lower wealth levels faced larger negative impacts or smaller gains compared with wealthier areas.<\/p>\n

Titled \u201cFlood recovery inequality in Pakistan: Evidence from the 2022 and 2025 monsoon floods using satellite data and relative wealth index,\u201d the research was conducted by Sughra, Siriporn Darnkachatarn and Yoshio Kajitani. It was published in Environmental and Sustainability Indicators and became available online on September 24, 2026.<\/p>\n

The researchers examined flood impacts across Pakistan using satellite data on nighttime lights, vegetation and population exposure. They studied 85,533 grid cells across the country, with each cell covering about 4.4 square kilometres on average. Of these, 15,794 heavily flooded cells were matched with non-flooded areas for comparison.<\/p>\n

Nighttime light data was used as a proxy for local economic and social activity, while vegetation data helped measure damage to crops and natural vegetation. Population data was used to assess how many people were exposed to inundation. The study also used a Relative Wealth Index to compare poorer and wealthier localities.<\/p>\n

The research was carried out against the backdrop of the 2022 floods, described in the study as the most severe in Pakistan\u2019s recorded history. Those floods affected 33 million people, caused 1,739 deaths and damaged or destroyed about 1.7 million homes. Agricultural losses alone were estimated at more than $3.7 billion.<\/p>\n

Before recovery from the 2022 disaster was complete, the 2025 monsoon brought another major flood. According to the study, about 6.9 million people were affected and nearly 3 million were displaced. In Punjab, around 1.12 million hectares of crops were submerged, while about 230,000 homes and 4,700 villages were inundated.<\/p>\n

The immediate impact of the 2022 floods was especially severe for vegetation. Flooded areas recorded about 29 percentage points more vegetation loss than matched non-flooded areas, with the effect particularly strong in agricultural areas of Sindh and Balochistan.<\/p>\n

The study also found that, on average, 37.3 per cent of the population in flooded grid cells was directly exposed to inundation in 2022. The researchers said this was a descriptive measure of exposure, not a separate estimate of the impact of flooding.<\/p>\n

Nighttime light activity also fell during the 2022 flood year. The matched difference was 0.831 percentage points, though the researchers noted that this result became statistically weaker under a stricter matching method. They cautioned that nighttime light data may not fully capture economic damage in rural and low-income farming communities, where nighttime light levels are naturally lower.<\/p>\n

Economic activity appeared to improve in the years after the 2022 floods. Compared with matched areas, nighttime light growth was 2.904 percentage points higher in 2023 and 4.035 percentage points higher in 2024. However, the study warned that these improvements cannot be attributed to rebuilding alone because flood-hit and control areas were already following different trends before 2022.<\/p>\n

That recovery was interrupted by the 2025 floods. The year-to-year change in nighttime light growth from 2024 to 2025 was negative by 1.54 percentage points under the main comparison and negative by 2.31 percentage points when areas not flooded in either year were used as controls. A separate analysis focused on the 2025 flood estimated the reduction at between 2.12 and 2.86 percentage points.<\/p>\n

Vegetation followed a somewhat different recovery path. By April 2023, flooded areas had reached 80 per cent of their earlier vegetation level at a higher rate than matched controls, with a difference of 3.644 percentage points. The advantage continued through October 2023, April 2024 and October 2024, when the differences stood at 4.176, 4.244 and 4.292 percentage points respectively. The 2025 floods, however, caused another 10.902 percentage points of vegetation loss.<\/p>\n

The study reported a clear link between wealth and recovery. Poorer areas experienced greater negative effects or smaller improvements than wealthier ones. This pattern remained visible over the years, although the gap narrowed after the initial shock. The relationship between wealth and the 2022 impact was statistically significant, with a Spearman correlation of 0.167. The correlation later declined to 0.060 in 2023, 0.071 in 2024 and 0.081 in 2025, while the same broad order across wealth groups remained.<\/p>\n

The researchers said poorer communities may struggle to recover because of limited access to formal financial services and credit, greater dependence on agriculture, weaker housing and reduced access to targeted public support. The study noted that repeated flooding can exhaust the money, assets and other resources poor communities retain after an earlier disaster.<\/p>\n

It also found that low-wealth areas and locations with the highest flood intensity overlapped in several parts of the country, especially in the lower Indus basin in Sindh. Districts that experienced the longest flood duration in 2022 also had some of the lowest average wealth scores. The researchers said this indicated that physical flood risk and socioeconomic weakness are closely located in several areas.<\/p>\n

The provincial findings varied sharply. Punjab showed a strong recovery pattern, with nighttime light effects rising from 3.3 percentage points in 2022 to 10.0 percentage points by 2024. Agricultural recovery was also relatively stable. The study said this pattern may be linked to stronger infrastructure, higher wealth and greater institutional capacity, while making clear that these were proposed explanations and not proven causes.<\/p>\n

Sindh showed a far weaker recovery trend. Its nighttime light measure recorded a negative 6.2 percentage point impact in 2022, followed by almost no recovery in 2023 and further negative results in 2024 and 2025. Sindh also had the highest population exposure in the study and a 52.4 percentage point vegetation loss measure in 2022.<\/p>\n

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa presented a different picture. Its nighttime light measure declined from negative 1.3 percentage points in 2022 to negative 7.1 percentage points in 2025, even though its vegetation recovery was strongly positive, ranging from 13.7 to 13.8 percentage points. The study said this contrast showed that natural vegetation can recover faster than economic activity, which depends more on infrastructure, transport, markets and formal employment.<\/p>\n

Balochistan recorded a delayed but continuing decline. Its nighttime light result was nearly unchanged in 2022 but fell to negative 4.0 percentage points in 2024 and negative 4.4 percentage points in 2025. The province also recorded the largest vegetation loss measure in 2022 at 66.0 percentage points, along with continuing negative vegetation recovery results. The study linked this pattern to Balochistan\u2019s dry climate, fragile soils and limited irrigation, presenting these as possible explanations.<\/p>\n

Repeated flooding emerged as another major concern. About 12.4 per cent of the grid cells studied, equal to 10,637 cells, were affected by both the 2022 and 2025 floods. These areas were concentrated mainly in the lower Indus basin in Sindh. The researchers found that recovery in these places was disrupted by the second flood and that repeated exposure created cumulative effects rather than simply adding the damage from two separate events.<\/p>\n

The study said a second flood can strike before families, businesses and communities have rebuilt homes, replaced damaged assets or restored incomes. In such cases, resources that would normally support recovery from the first disaster have to be used again for the second. The researchers described this as cumulative vulnerability.<\/p>\n

The researchers recommended that flood recovery be monitored through multiple types of satellite information instead of relying only on indicators of economic activity. They highlighted vegetation data and the Relative Wealth Index as useful tools for identifying communities facing deeper and slower recovery challenges.<\/p>\n

The study identified Kambar Shahdad Kot, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Larkana, Dadu and Shikarpur as low-wealth districts in the Lower Indus corridor that have faced repeated flooding and may need targeted recovery and resilience investment. It also called for disaster planning that accounts for repeated floods, including financing arrangements prepared in advance and infrastructure that can reduce recovery time.<\/p>\n

The authors urged caution in interpreting the findings. Since flooded and non-flooded areas had different trends before 2022, the study described its results as covariate-adjusted associations rather than proof that flooding directly caused every measured difference. The researchers also said nighttime light data can understate agricultural losses, while 2025 estimates remain provisional until more official post-disaster figures become available.<\/p>\n

The study concluded that flood losses and recovery in Pakistan are unequal across both society and geography. Poorer areas face greater losses and slower recovery, while a second flood before recovery is complete can deepen the crisis. The researchers said future work combining satellite data with household surveys could provide a clearer picture of how disasters affect families at the individual level.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study says poorer Pakistani communities suffered greater flood losses and slower recovery after the 2022 and 2025 floods, with repeated flooding worsening vulnerability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":21265,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pakistan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21266"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21267,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21266\/revisions\/21267"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.peakpoint.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}