MUZAFFARABAD: As Azad Jammu and Kashmir heads towards the July 27 Legislative Assembly elections, the Global Election Observer Network (GEON) has cautioned that rising political tension, continuing protests in Rawalakot and incidents of election-related violence could create serious hurdles for the smooth conduct of the polls.
In its latest assessment, GEON, which has deployed observers across AJK and refugee constituencies in Pakistan, said the electoral environment had changed considerably since the last elections. It noted that the voter population had risen by more than half a million during the past five years.
According to figures compiled by the observer mission, the total number of registered voters has reached 3.8 million, showing an increase of 583,839 voters compared with the 2021 elections.
While describing the increase in the electorate as an encouraging sign for democratic participation, GEON said the political atmosphere remained highly charged in several constituencies. It particularly referred to Poonch Division, where the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) has been continuing its protest movement since June 9 against the existence of the 12 refugee constituencies.
Observers posted in Rawalakot reported sustained public mobilisation and growing resentment over the issue of refugee seats. GEON said the situation had raised questions about whether routine election activities could continue without disruption in the area.
According to the network’s field findings, if tensions continue until polling day, they could affect polling arrangements and voters’ access in the affected constituencies.
GEON also drew attention to a number of troubling incidents reported during the election campaign. It said several political leaders had faced hostile crowds and disruptions at campaign events. In one violent incident, a personal security guard accompanying former AJK prime minister and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party leader Sardar Tanveer Ilyas was killed.
The organisation said such incidents showed the need for stronger security measures to protect candidates, campaign workers and voters during the election process.
GEON further noted that polling in one constituency had already been postponed following the death of a contesting candidate. It said the development had added another layer of complexity to the electoral exercise.
In its political assessment, GEON said the contest was increasingly taking the shape of a two-way race between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). It added that the absence of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) from the electoral field had significantly changed the political equation in many constituencies.
The observer mission said the 12 refugee constituencies, which comprise more than 438,000 voters, could play a decisive role in determining which party forms the next government. Field assessments suggested that the PML-N currently held a stronger position in several refugee constituencies located in Punjab, which could give the party an important advantage in the contest for power.
GEON also highlighted the continuing role of biradari politics in AJK. Its observers reported that voting choices in several constituencies were still strongly influenced by clan affiliations. The Rajput, Gujjar, Sudhan, Jat, Awan and Abbasi communities were identified as groups that continued to have a decisive impact on electoral outcomes.
The mission said that among the 45 constituencies, LA-7 Bhimber-III remained the largest, with nearly 130,000 registered voters, while LA-30 Muzaffarabad-IV was the smallest. It added that more than half of AJK’s territorial constituencies now had electorates of over 100,000 voters, reflecting shifting demographic and political realities.
Despite its concerns over security and political tension, GEON acknowledged the Election Commission’s efforts to update electoral rolls and make preparations for the polls. However, it stressed that maintaining a peaceful environment, especially in sensitive constituencies, would be essential for preserving public confidence in the electoral process.
GEON said its observers would remain deployed across AJK and refugee constituencies throughout polling day and the vote-counting process. The organisation said it would issue a comprehensive assessment of the conduct, transparency and credibility of the 2026 AJK elections after the process concludes.
