New global projections show a concentrated population surge that is reshaping the world: a small group of ten countries now account for the majority of humanity’s expansion as the planet moves toward 9 billion people. Analysis drawing on United Nations projections and visualised by the Strategic Research Institute highlights that demographic momentum is no longer widespread but driven by specific nations in South Asia and Africa.
Population surge is most pronounced in India, which is projected to add roughly 147 million people, a figure far exceeding the growth of any other country. Nigeria is set to add about 65 million, the Democratic Republic of the Congo 51 million and Ethiopia 46 million. Tanzania and Egypt contribute another 28 million and 23 million respectively, with those five African nations together accounting for more than 213 million new people. Pakistan is projected to add around 59 million, while Bangladesh and Indonesia each add roughly 25 million. The United States stands apart among high-income countries with an increase of about 21 million, reflecting a mix of natural growth and immigration.
The concentration of growth in a handful of countries carries profound implications for global labour markets, consumption patterns, migration flows and geopolitical influence. Rapid increases in working-age populations can be an economic boon if matched by jobs, education and infrastructure, but the same dynamic can fuel urban crowding, food and water stress, and social tensions if policy and planning lag.
For Pakistan and neighbouring states, the regional ripple effects are significant: shifts in labour supply, remittances, migration routes and competitive pressures for jobs and resources will require careful fiscal and urban planning. Policymakers in Islamabad will need to monitor regional demographic trends closely and adapt education, healthcare and employment strategies to the changing regional landscape.
The coming decades will see global fortunes shaped by the policy choices of a few nations. Whether the current population surge becomes a source of shared prosperity or a driver of instability will depend on how these countries manage education, job creation and basic services in the face of rapid growth.
