Pakistan-China CPEC: The Promise, the Perils, and the Current Crossroads
Pakistan-China CPEC: The Promise, the Perils, and the Current Crossroads
By Arzoo kazmi
If you’ve heard of CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), you probably imagine shiny new roads, bustling Gwadar port, and mountains of cash flowing into Pakistan. And — spoiler alert — that’s partly true. But like any mega-project, it’s not all rainbows and silk roads. Let’s dig into what CPEC really is today, what’s going well, what’s going sideways, and why it still sparks debate — sometimes fiery, sometimes confused, always complicated.
What Is CPEC (and Why Should You Care)
First things first: CPEC is a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On paper, it’s a win-win: build infrastructure, boost trade, generate energy, and connect China’s western regions (like Xinjiang) with Pakistan’s Gwadar port by the Arabian Sea.
According to the official CPEC Secretariat, the initiative spans many areas — not just roads and rails, but energy, agriculture, special economic zones (SEZs), and people-to-people ties.
Now, why it matters for Pakistan:
Infrastructure: Better highways, modern ports, faster connectivity.
Energy: Power projects aiming to reduce load-shedding (yes, I’m looking at you, Karachi blackouts).
Jobs & Growth: If done well, CPEC could be a growth engine.
Geopolitics: For Pakistan, it’s not just about money — it’s about strategic alignment with China.
Cool, right? But of course, there’s more under the hood.
—
Where CPEC Stands Today — The Mixed Reality
Completed Projects (Some Wins)
As of now, 38 projects worth about USD 25 billion under CPEC are completed.
Out of these, 17 are energy projects, costing around USD 18 billion.
Gwadar has seen some development: expressways, port activity. For example, the Gwadar East Bay Expressway (19 km) connects the port to the Makran Coastal Highway.
On the energy front, Karot Hydropower (720 MW) was completed in June 2022, thanks to Chinese investment.
According to Modern Diplomacy, CPEC has led to over 800 km of highways, helping speed up transport.
Jobs? Some reports suggest 200,000+ jobs have been created through CPEC investments.
So yes — there’s tangible progress.
Energy Gains (But Some Question Marks)
Energy is perhaps the most visible part of CPEC in Pakistan’s day-to-day life:
The CPEC Secretariat itself says 14 energy generation projects are completed, delivering an estimated 8,020+ MW.
According to a 2025 update, CPEC-based projects contributed 9,504 MW to Pakistan’s grid.
There’s a big coal component: coal-based generation under CPEC went from a small fraction to ~19% of the energy mix by 2024.
On the clean side: in 2013–2018, CPEC added about 11,650 MW of electricity, including hydro, wind, and solar.
Example: the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (~1,000 MW) is a flagship clean energy project tied to CPEC.
So energy-wise, CPEC has definitely helped. But “helped” ≠ “problem solved.”
Phase II Is Here… But With Bumps
Big news: in September 2025, Pakistan and China formally launched CPEC Phase II.
Key priorities in Phase II:
Industrial cooperation and Special Economic Zones (SEZs)
Modernizing infrastructure, like ML-1 railway line and the Karakoram Highway (KKH) realignment
More maritime development (i.e. Gwadar) and mining
Focus on sustainability, technology, and shared prosperity.
However — and this is a big however — not all issues were solved in the Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting:
The long-standing issue of repayment to Chinese Independent Power Producers (IPPs) remains unresolved.
For ML-1, China apparently wants significant commitment from Pakistan (especially given Pakistan’s IMF program), before finalizing financing.
In short: Phase II is ambitious, but it’s not a free pass.
New Investment Deals (2025 Twist)
In September 2025, PM Shehbaz Sharif and Chinese Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed commitment to CPEC 2.0, with 21 MoUs signed.
Around USD 8.5 billion in new investment deals with China: $7B in MoUs + $1.5B in joint ventures. These cover agriculture, renewable energy, electric vehicles, health, steel, etc.
Also, in early 2025, Pakistan and China pledged to upgrade railways, further develop Gwadar port, and open doors for Chinese investment in mining and offshore oil & gas.
So yes, Phase II is more than just talk, but not without skeptics.
—
The Risky Side: Criticisms, Dark Clouds & Debt Nightmares
No huge mega-project is without its critics, and CPEC has a full fan club of those — from economists to environmentalists, from local Baloch activists to geopolitical watchers.
Here are some of the big risk zones:
1. Debt Burden & Repayment Angst
One of the most persistent criticisms: is this a “debt trap”?
Way back, it was estimated that Pakistan would pay around $40B over 20 years on about $26.5 billion of Chinese CPEC investments.
According to ThePrint, energy projects alone (e.g., hydropower) could carry heavy repayment + dividend burdens.
The issue with IPPs (Independent Power Producers) is a sore spot: Pakistan has struggled to resolve payments to Chinese IPPs, which was also flagged in the recent 14th JCC meeting.
Some critics say there’s no comprehensive, transparent long-term plan on how Pakistan will repay these Chinese loans, raising concerns about long-term fiscal stability.
If you’re a worried citizen, you might ask: Are we building for today… or mortgaging tomorrow?
2. Security Risks & Local Backlash
Gwadar, for example, was supposed to turn into “Pakistan’s Dubai.” But reality is more complicated.
There have been terrorist attacks against Chinese workers, especially in Balochistan.
Local communities, particularly in Balochistan, feel left out. Critics argue that the benefits of CPEC are not trickling down to the people most directly impacted, fueling resentment and unrest.
According to some sources, large security deployments, checkpoints, segregated zones for Chinese workers in Gwadar, and a heavy military presence have turned parts of Gwadar into something that feels less like a booming economic hub and more like a high-security compound.
Bottom line: infrastructure is one thing, but social buy-in and security are another.
3. Economic Dependency & Industrial Risk
Cheap Chinese goods flooding into Pakistan might hurt local industries. Critics warn that local manufacturers may not be able to compete.
There are concerns about an over-reliance on Chinese investment — what if China slows down or changes priorities (which seems possible now with Phase II negotiations)?
Some argue that many of the CPEC projects are economically motivated more by China’s strategic goals than by Pakistan’s genuine developmental needs.
4. Environmental & Sustainability Concerns
With a large chunk of energy projects being coal-based, there are environmental implications — pollution, carbon emissions, water usage.
While there is movement toward renewables under CPEC, some analysts say the pace or scale is not enough, or regulatory hurdles remain.
There’s also the question of social/environmental impact on local communities, especially in Balochistan and other less-developed areas, where infrastructure development can displace people or disrupt ecosystems.
—
Why Some People Still Cheer (Yes, Some Do)
Okay, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are strong arguments in favor of CPEC, and they are not just government PR:
Energy Relief: For a country which has historically suffered from chronic power shortages, adding gigawatts of capacity is no small achievement.
Jobs & Growth: New infrastructure means construction jobs, long-term economic activity, SEZs could become hubs for manufacturing.
Strategic Value: For Pakistan, CPEC isn’t just about economics — it’s geopolitically significant, giving access to Chinese markets, and strengthening a long-term alliance.
Connectivity: The highways, railways, and Gwadar port could transform trade routes, reduce logistics costs, and integrate remote regions more deeply into global trade.
And with Phase II now in motion, there’s real talk (and money) on industrialization, technology, and sustainability.
—
So, What’s the Big Question Now? (Let’s Debate)
Here are a few discussion points that keep people up at night (or at least scrolling Twitter):
1. Is CPEC a long-term blessing or a debt bomb?
With massive repayments coming, especially for energy IPPs, will Pakistan’s economy buckle, or will the growth pay off the loans?
2. Security vs Development:
Can Pakistan truly ensure the safety of Chinese workers and win over local communities? Or will the cost of security negate the economic benefits?
3. Industrial Sovereignty:
Are SEZs under Phase II a path to Pakistan’s industrial revival — or just more dependency on Chinese capital and markets?
4. Green CPEC or Coal CPEC?:
With new investments, will China and Pakistan prioritize clean energy this time, or will coal continue to dominate?
5. What if China pulls back?
Given global geopolitics, if China slows its BRI ambitions, how will Pakistan cope? Are we building a future that’s too reliant on a single partner?
—
My Two Cents (Yes, I Have Some)
Look, I’m cautiously optimistic — but only cautiously. CPEC is more than just concrete and wires: it’s a bet on Pakistan’s future. If done right, it could reshape our economy, improve our energy supply, and open doors. But if done wrong… well, that “debt trap” rhetoric might not be just rhetoric.
Here are a few things I think need to happen for CPEC to truly deliver:
Transparency: We need clearer data on how much is being borrowed, how much is being repaid, and what the long-term fiscal burden is.
Local Inclusion: Development should benefit local communities — jobs, quality of life, not just big-picture infrastructure.
Sustainable Projects: Phase II should lean more into green energy and less into high-pollution coal.
Strategic Diversification: Pakistan shouldn’t put all its eggs in the CPEC basket. We need to foster other trade and investment partnerships too.
—
Final Thoughts
CPEC is neither magic nor mirage — it’s complicated. It’s the kind of project that promises a lot but demands a lot. It’s like inviting a super-rich friend over to help you renovate your house: great if they invest in solar panels, not so great if they take over the roof and charge you rent for living under it.
As Pakistan and China move into Phase II, the question isn’t just about how much will be built, but how sustainable and equitable that build will be. Will the next decade of CPEC be about shared prosperity — or shared problems?
The writer is a journalist
TV anchor , Vlogger
from Islamabad Pakistan
Can be reach via X
@Arzookazmi30
Email arzukazmi@gmail.com
